I have an announcement to share with you all today. I've decided to migrate my blog from blogspot to a new home on Substack (https://marketobserver.substack.com). This move will allow me to provide you with an enhanced reading experience and more engaging content.
Why the move? Substack offers a range of features that will help me deliver better content to you, including improved formatting, easier subscription management, and a more interactive community space. I believe this transition will benefit us all in the long run.
What does this mean for you?
New URL: Our new blog address is https://marketobserver.substack.com. If you are keen, please bookmark this new address!
All future articles will be published on Substack.
If you like my articles, please subscribe to our new Substack page so that you don't miss new ones.
Here is the first article that I have already published on Substack. It's titled "The Feedback Loop: George Soros' Reflexivity" and delves into an intriguing economic concept that deepened my understanding of Mr Market. You can read it here:
I hope you can find time to check it out. Let me know your thoughts!
While this will be my last post on this Blogspot platform, it's just the beginning of my journey on Substack.
See you there!
P.S. If you like my articles so far, please don't forget to subscribe to (https://marketobserver.substack.com) to stay updated with all my future posts!
This article tackles a topic that should be on everyone's mind: scams. Protecting ourselves and our loved ones is paramount, especially given the alarming rise of scams in recent years. This issue hits particularly close to home for me because I have elderly dependents who are prime targets for these heartless criminals. If they fall victim, their problem becomes my problem.
All of us will retire one day. For retirees with no active income, the consequences of being scammed are devastating. The loss of their hard-earned savings could mean sacrificing essential needs or even facing financial ruin.
What's even scarier? It's not only retirees who are vulnerable. ANYONE CAN BE SCAMMED. I've seen online forums like hardwarezone, where people deride scam victims as stupid and careless. "Basic smartphone safety practice also don't know. Already say many times don't anyhow click on suspicious links on Facebook advertisements liao. Stupid no cure."
Some people think they are too smart to fall prey to scams but this "it-won't-happen-to-me" attitude is dangerous.
While younger, tech-savvy individuals may not fall for phishing links, they can be scammed in countless other ways. Everyone has unique weaknesses and vulnerabilities. Once a scammer identifies and exploits them, anyone can fall prey. I constantly remind myself not to be overconfident. After all, there are countless examples of more brilliant, more successful people who have been scammed.
Take the case of Nina Wang. At the time of her death in 2007, she was the richest woman in Asia, having amassed a fortune through her business acumen and fierce determination. She built her empire, Chinachem Group, alongside her husband, Teddy Wang, before his kidnapping in 1990. She famously stared down the kidnappers, paying a $33 million ransom, but Teddy was tragically never seen again. She even fought a high-profile legal battle against her own father-in-law for control of the company, ultimately solidifying her position as a business titan. If anyone seemed impervious to manipulation, it was Nina Wang. Yet, even she fell prey to a shocking scam.
The details of the scam seemed absurd, considering her business acumen. The scammer, Tony Chan, exploited Nina Wang's deep love for her late husband, Teddy Wang, and her loneliness as a widow. Teddy had disappeared years earlier after being kidnapped, and despite evidence pointing to his death, Nina refused to believe the evidence and clung to the hope that he was still alive. Tony, a self-proclaimed feng shui master, exploited this vulnerability by claiming he could locate her husband through his Fengshui's rituals. His rituals involved erotic massage. One thing led to another (use your own imagination). The two became lovers later. When Nina passed away, the scammer forged a will and named himself the sole beneficiary of her massive fortune. Justice prevailed and he was sentenced to 12 years jail for the forgery.
Nina Wang's story is a powerful reminder that even the smartest, most successful individuals are vulnerable to manipulation. If it can happen to her, it can happen to anyone of us. We all have emotional needs, blind spots, and moments of weakness that a skilled manipulator can exploit. Therefore, we must remain vigilant. Cultivating self-awareness, questioning motives, and seeking independent verification, especially when it comes to matters of the heart and finances, are crucial defenses against deception.
At the risk of sounding repetitive, there are 2 points which I want the reader to take away from this article.
Anyone can be scammed. Don't let overconfidence make you a target.
Be acutely aware of our vulnerabilities so that we can sense manipulation as it happens
Psychological manipulation extends beyond scams.
Be aware of it in sales and marketing to avoid being manipulated into buying unnecessary things.
Be aware of it even in personal relationships where toxic people manipulate you into doing things you don't want for their selfish interest.
Acknowledging our vulnerabilities and staying vigilant against manipulation are vital aspects of protecting ourselves and our wealth.
Here are the results of financial markets that I tracked in 2023, using tools I developed for personal use. The links to the tools will be provided. I have uploaded them to Github Pages and they are available to the public free of charge, with no advertisements.
Stock indices performances are reported after adjusting in USD for fair comparison.
The top 20 stock indices were all positive, with Nasdaq100 at the top gaining 53.81%. A In 2022, Nasdaq100 was the 2nd worst stock index at -32.97%. It was a strong rebound for Nasdaq100 in 2023.
Japan Nikkei225 gained 28.24% in nominal terms in 2023 and would have been ranked 2nd best performer on this metric. However, after adjusting for USD, Nikkei225 gained "only" 19.24% and the ranking dropped to 15th.
Japanese Yen depreciated against USD by 7.02%. When investing in Japanese stocks, the depreciating effects of the Yen cannot be ignored.
Bottom ranking of stock indices in 2023 (USD-adjusted)
The past 2 years(2023, 2022) have been terrible years for China/HK's stock markets.
China's ChiNext index is China's version of the U.S's Nasdaq index. The purpose of ChiNext index is to track high-growth, innovative stocks on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
A year ago (2022), the worst stock index was China's ChiNext index. One year later (2023), the worst stock index is again ChiNext index.
In 2022, the bottom 10 stock indices were littered with the names of Chinese stock indices (ChiNext, A50, CSI300, Shenzhen Composite, Shanghai Composite). One year later (2023), the same Chinese stock indices appear on the bottom 10 list. New additions in 2023 on the bottom 10 list include Hong Kong's Hang Seng index and Hang Seng China Enterprise index.
Since the 2019 large-scale mass protests in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index has suffered an unprecedented 4 consecutive down years (2020 -3.4%, 2021 -14.08%, 2022 -15.46%, 2023 -13.82%)
For long-term investors, it may be a good time to buy some HK stocks to take advantage of the low valuation. A rebound driven by mean reversion is due. A lot of pessimistic HK investors who want to be out should be mostly out by the 4th down year.
For shorter-term traders who are usually momentum-oriented, who is to say a 5th consecutive down year cannot happen again, given the strong momentum? Momentum traders may want to wait for an initial strong rebound first, then get in.
The top 2 currencies in 2023 are exotic pairs - Mexican Peso USDMXN and Polish zloty USDPLN. I do not know much about them to comment.
Both the Mexican Peso and the Brazilian Real appeared in the top 5 currency list in the past 2 years (2023, 2022).
Bottom ranking of currencies versus USD in 2023
Bottom ranking of currencies versus USD in 2022
The worst currency in 2023 was the Argentina Peso USDARS (357.42%!). One year ago (2022), the worst currency was also the Argentina Peso. The countries making up the worst 4 currencies of both years are the same. These countries are Argentina, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan.
What's common among these 4 countries with fast-depreciating currencies?
These 4 countries are among the top 10 countries with the highest inflation in 2023.
Ranking of commodities in 2023
2023 has not been a good year for commodities in general. Natural gas fell 64% in 2023. Unfortunately, it did not help much in lowering the electricity utility bill despite Singapore generating about 92% of its electricity from natural gas.
All the top 10 major cryptocurrencies in 2023 made triple-digit percentage gains. The top crypto Solana scored 922.44% gain. One year ago, Solana suffered a loss of 98%. Cryptocurrencies can be very profitable if you are a good trader.
The recovery in 2023 from 2022 lows was incredible for cryptocurrencies.
